Economist

Oliver’s insights – Seven reasons Australia is likely to avoid recession from Trump’s shock

16 April

Key points President Trump’s trade war poses a threat to Australian economic growth particularly via the indirect impact of weaker global activity driving less demand for our exports and lower commodity prices. Australia is likely to avoid a...[Read More]

Investment markets and key developments – Weekly market update 8/04/2025

9 April

Global share markets plunged over the last week taking them well below their mid-March lows in response to Trump’s higher than expected tariffs, with China’s retaliation on Friday adding to worries about a full-blown trade war, all of which...[Read More]

Oliver’s Insights – The Trump Dump in shares – what does it mean for Australia & investors?

8 April

Key points Share markets have fallen further on US President Trump’s worse than expected tariff policies. Further weakness is likely but at some point Trump is likely to pivot towards focussing more on his market friendly policies and the Fed...[Read More]

Oliver’s Insights – The 2025-26 Federal Budget’s economic impact

26 March

AMP economists Dr Shane Oliver, Diana Mousina and My Bui explain what impact the 2025-26 Federal Budget could have on the Aussie economy and investment markets.   Key points Many measures were pre-announced, but key new measures include tax cuts...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Share market falls – seven key things for investors to bear in mind

12 March

Key points: Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks as uncertainty around US President Trump’s policies have led to renewed concerns about the risk of recession at a time when share market valuations were stretched. It’s still too...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Australian home prices turning back up again

5 March

Key points CoreLogic data shows average home prices rose 0.3% in February, after a brief three-month downturn of just 0.4%. The upswing came in anticipation of, and then confirmation of, an RBA rate cut which boosted buyer confidence. Annual...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – The seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on

26 February

Key points So far shares have been relatively resilient, but uncertainties are mounting particularly around Trump’s policies. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but expect a rougher more constrained ride this year for shares, with a 15% plus...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – The RBA starts cutting rates – implications for the economy and investors

19 February

Key points As widely expected, the RBA cut its cash rate to 4.1% from 4.35% after 13 rate hikes reflecting “more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards” the 2-3% target. However, the RBA noted that it is “cautious on...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Investment outlook Q&A – Tariff man & Aust exports, the RBA, $A & gold

12 February

Key points Trump’s tariff war has potentially another 6-9 months to go at least. This poses an ongoing threat to shares, but their relative resilience so far risks emboldening Trump to do even more. Even if Australian exports are not exempted...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – More Trump tariffs (and deals) – implications for investors and Australia

5 February

Key points US President Trump has announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China and is threatening more tariffs. The one-month delay to tariffs with Canada & Mexico is a sign they may be averted, but the uncertainty with more tariffs likely means...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – What’s driven the fall in the $A? – Does it threaten inflation and RBA easing?

22 January

Key points The $A has been hit since September by the return of Trump, a hawkish pivot by the Fed versus the RBA and concerns about the outlook for iron ore prices. We doubt the fall is significant enough to boost inflation much and...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – More volatile and constrained – the macro investment outlook for 2025

15 January

Key points 2024 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth & profits and global central banks cutting rates. Volatility was low and balanced growth super funds returned around 11%. 2025...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Australia’s falling living standards – what’s driving it and how to fix it

18 December

Key points – Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments have led to a slump in Australian living standards. – But a broader driver of the malaise in living standards has been a slump in productivity growth from over 2% pa in...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Goldilocks stayed for 2024, but what’s in store for investors in 2025?

11 December

Key points – The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Trump 2.0: Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared

20 November

Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces...[Read More]